What do cooling trends in August mean for fall weather?

Cooler temperatures are on the way

Youngstown, Ohio weather autumn fall leaves clear sunny skies

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio (WKBN) – Over the last few days, we’ve hit near normal to high temperatures but a cooling trend is beginning with below-average temperatures.

The first four days in August featured a warm pattern of highs in the mid- to low-80s with the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That screams summer-like weather.

But what will the cooler temperatures coming in mean for our fall?

Fall is just seven weekends away. With new data from the Climate Prediction Center, it seems there will be a cool down within the next week or so.

Below is the temperature trend over the next week (days 6-10). Eastern Ohio only has a 33 percent chance of having below-average temperatures, which isn’t very strong.

You can see with the Storm Team 27 Forecast that we will experience a cool down with the passing of a strong cold front on Friday:

610temp.new
Images courtesy of NOAA

FORECAST

Saturday: Becoming partly sunny. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle. (20%)
High: 73 Low: 57

Sunday: Partly sunny.
High: 76 Low: 54

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms. (60%)
High: 77 Low: 61

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance for a shower early. (40%)
High: 74 Low: 60

Wednesday: Partly sunny.
High: 77 Low: 57

However, things change when we look beyond the short-term forecast:

 

814temp.new

Here is the same outlook, but for days 8-14, so really looking toward next week:

off15_tempoff01_temp

On the left is the one-month climate forecast and on the right is the three-month forecast for the months of August, September, and October.

Off the bat, you may notice that the confidence on a cooling trend ends for our area. Most of the United States looks warmer for the start of fall.

Now looking at these maps, we must understand that there will be fluctuations in all short-term temperatures.

If one day during the week the high is in the 90s and another day it’s in the 70s, the two days will average out to be 80, which is well in the range of normal. So overall, the trend will stay above average but the average will continue to slip as we get into the heart of fall.

So we can’t rule out freezing days in October but overall, it’s looking like we’ll see more warmer days than cooler.

So fall lovers, enjoy!

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