You know the part in The Shining were Jack Nicholson’s character pokes his head through the door and yells “Here’s Johnny?” That’s how I feel looking at the snow forecast, over and over again.
Here’s what I mean:
ROUND 1- Thursday and Friday
(Confidence: Timing- High, Location- Medium, Amounts- Medium)
When: The timing of this round is pretty much set in stone. Another cold front will move through this evening and with it will come rain and snow. There is only the chance for rain this evening, but as temperatures tumble, it will all turn over to snow.
The snow will continue overnight and lake effect will kick up behind the system. The lake effect could continue through the day Friday.
Where: The reason there is a medium confidence is due to the fact that the majority snow will fall as lake effect. Most of us could see a dusting to an inch of snow Thursday night, but higher amounts will fall in the snow belt.
It will be one of those events where a city could see several inches, while your neighboring city down the road will only see a dusting. It all depends on the bands.
How much: Overnight, we will see a dusting to an inch — nothing that will cause concern. However, the lake-effect snow bands could drop a half inch to inch per hour, depending on where they set up.
ROUND 2- Sunday and Monday
(Confidence: Timing- High, Location- High, Amounts- Medium)
When: The snow could start as early as Saturday night. It will be off-and-on through the day on Sunday.
The biggest question has to do with temperatures, whether or not our highs will be above the freezing mark.
The snow will taper off Sunday night, but lake-effect snow will likely continue into Monday morning.
Where: Only the tail end of the snow will be lake-effect snow. The rest of the time it will be an on-and-off system of snow throughout the entire viewing area.
How much: The snowfall for this event will likely be more than the Thursday/Friday snow. At this time, a widespread snow of 2-4 inches is possible. Some areas could see more, depending on temperatures Sunday.
If temperatures stay below freezing, then we could see 2-4+ inches. If some snow turns to rain, the amounts will be lower.
ROUND 3- Tuesday and Wednesday
(Confidence: Timing- Medium, Location- Low, Amounts- Low)
When: There have been several model runs where the snow will fall from Tuesday, through the overnight hours and taper off Wednesday. The bulk of the snow will likely be late Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night.
Where: Just like the last system, this will be widespread snow. It all depends on the track of the storm. If it goes north or south of our area, we will see far less snow. If we get a direct hit, then we could see the highest snow totals so far this season across the board.
How much: At this time (take this with a grain of salt; it WILL change), this system looks like it could put down several inches of snow again. It is hard to pinpoint a total right now because we don’t know the exact path this far out. So if you see any post on social media claiming ridiculous snow totals, ignore it. Those totals will likely be wrong.